The cap is going up and while everyone, except maybe the owners, has a reason to be excited, it’s going to involve more changes for the GMs and capologists. One thing’s for sure, it’s a brave new era in the world of contracts and AAVs for players.
Where’s the Cap Going?
Last year, the salary cap was at $88M and we all got used to what deals looked like with that cap in place. We knew what a $3M player looked like and what an $8M player was like. With the cap going up and 3 increases were announced. The cap is going to increase from $88 million in the current season to $95.5 million in 2025-26, then to $104 million in 2026-27, and finally to $113.5 million in 2027-28. Because of this, deals are going to start looking very different, especially with longer-term deals looking to get signed this off season. This could mean a much bigger payout to top free agents such as Marner, Boeser, and others.
How to see the values in AAV moving forward?
The easiest way to look at this is by seeing what percentage of the cap players are getting now. From there, we can compare that number to the newer cap numbers, take that percentage their contract and get an idea of what their cap number would look like under the soon-to-be old $88M cap.
Here’s the big picture:
To make sense of how the rising cap affects contracts, I took common AAVs in increments — and projected their future cap hit equivalents based on how much of the cap they take up today (at $88M). Then I scaled that same percentage across each projected cap level in future years.
| Year | ’25-’26 | ’26-’27 | ’27-’28 | ’28-’29 | ’29-’30 | ’30-’31 | ’31-’32 | |
| AAV | % $88M Cap | $95.5M | $104M | $113.5M | $122M* | $130M* | $138M* | $140M* |
| $1M | 1.14% | $921K | $846K | $775K | $721K | $674K | $638K | $626K |
| $1.5M | 1.70% | $1.4M | $1.3M | $1.2M | $1.1M | $1.0M | $957K | $940K |
| $2.0M | 2.27% | $1.8M | $1.7M | $1.6M | $1.4M | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.3M |
| $2.5M | 2.84% | $2.3M | $2.1M | $1.9M | $1.8M | $1.7M | $1.6M | $1.6M |
| $3.0M | 3.41% | $2.8M | $2.5M | $2.3M | $2.2M | $2.0M | $1.9M | $1.9M |
| $3.5M | 3.98% | $3.2M | $3.0M | $2.7M | $2.5M | $2.4M | $2.2M | $2.2M |
| $4.0M | 4.55% | $3.7M | $3.4M | $3.1M | $2.9M | $2.7M | $2.6M | $2.5M |
| $4.5M | 5.11% | $4.1M | $3.8M | $3.5M | $3.2M | $3.0M | $2.9M | $2.8M |
| $5.0M | 5.68% | $4.6M | $4.2M | $3.9M | $3.6M | $3.4M | $3.2M | $3.1M |
| $5.5M | 6.25% | $5.1M | $4.7M | $4.3M | $4.0M | $3.7M | $3.5M | $3.4M |
| $6.0M | 6.82% | $5.5M | $5.1M | $4.7M | $4.3M | $4.0M | $3.8M | $3.8M |
| $6.5M | 7.39% | $6.0M | $5.5M | $5.0M | $4.7M | $4.4M | $4.1M | $4.1M |
| $7.0M | 7.95% | $6.5M | $5.9M | $5.4M | $5.0M | $4.7M | $4.5M | $4.4M |
| $7.5M | 8.52% | $6.9M | $6.3M | $5.8M | $5.4M | $5.1M | $4.8M | $4.7M |
| $8.0M | 9.09% | $7.4M | $6.8M | $6.2M | $5.8M | $5.4M | $5.1M | $5.0M |
| $8.5M | 9.66% | $7.8M | $7.2M | $6.6M | $6.1M | $5.7M | $5.4M | $5.3M |
| $9.0M | 10.23% | $8.3M | $7.6M | $7.0M | $6.5M | $6.1M | $5.7M | $5.6M |
| $9.5M | 10.80% | $8.8M | $8.0M | $7.4M | $6.9M | $6.4M | $6.1M | $6.0M |
| $10.0M | 11.36% | $9.2M | $8.5M | $7.8M | $7.2M | $6.7M | $6.4M | $6.3M |
| $10.5M | 11.93% | $9.7M | $8.9M | $8.1M | $7.6M | $7.1M | $6.7M | $6.6M |
| $11.0M | 12.50% | $10.1M | $9.3M | $8.5M | $7.9M | $7.4M | $7.0M | $6.9M |
| $11.5M | 13.07% | $10.6M | $9.7M | $8.9M | $8.3M | $7.8M | $7.3M | $7.2M |
| $12.0M | 13.64% | $11.1M | $10.2M | $9.3M | $8.7M | $8.1M | $7.7M | $7.5M |
| $12.5M | 14.20% | $11.5M | $10.6M | $9.7M | $9.0M | $8.4M | $8.0M | $7.8M |
| $13.0M | 14.77% | $12.0M | $11.0M | $10.1M | $9.4M | $8.8M | $8.3M | $8.1M |
| $13.5M | 15.34% | $12.4M | $11.4M | $10.5M | $9.7M | $9.1M | $8.6M | $8.5M |
| $14.0M | 15.91% | $12.9M | $11.8M | $10.9M | $10.1M | $9.4M | $8.9M | $8.8M |
| $14.5M | 16.48% | $13.4M | $12.3M | $11.2M | $10.5M | $9.8M | $9.2M | $9.1M |
| $15.0M | 17.05% | $13.8M | $12.7M | $11.6M | $10.8M | $10.1M | $9.6M | $9.4M |
| $15.5M | 17.61% | $14.3M | $13.1M | $12.0M | $11.2M | $10.5M | $9.9M | $9.7M |
| $16.0M | 18.18% | $14.7M | $13.5M | $12.4M | $11.5M | $10.8M | $10.2M | $10.0M |
| $16.5M | 18.75% | $15.2M | $14.0M | $12.8M | $11.9M | $11.1M | $10.5M | $10.3M |
| $17.0M | 19.32% | $15.7M | $14.4M | $13.2M | $12.3M | $11.5M | $10.8M | $10.6M |
| $17.5M | 19.89% | $16.1M | $14.8M | $13.6M | $12.6M | $11.8M | $11.2M | $11.0M |
| $18.0M | 20.45% | $16.6M | $15.2M | $14.0M | $13.0M | $12.1M | $11.5M | $11.3M |
*Future cap projections. These are estimates and may not reflect NHL/NHLPA/CBA cap numbers in the future.
What this looks like for recent signings?
Examples of Recent Signings (Signed deal and what the AAV is against future caps with the % of the Current $88M cap):
- Eric Robinson (Carolina): 4x$1.7M
- 2025-26: $1,566,492
- 2026-27: $1,438,462
- 2027-28: $1,318,062
- 2028-29: $1,226,230
- Avg: $1,387,311
- Jakob Chychrun (Washington): 8x$9M
- 2025-26: $8,293,194
- 2026-27: $7,615,385
- 2027-28: $6,977,974
- 2028-29: $6,491,803
- 2029-30: $6,068,966
- 2030-31: $5,739,130
- 2031-32: $5,637,011
- Avg (first 7 years): $6,689,066
- Matt Coronato (Calgary): 7x$6.5
- 2025-26: $5,989,529
- 2026-27: $5,500,000
- 2027-28: $5,039,648
- 2028-29: $4,688,525
- 2029-30: $4,383,142
- 2030-31: $4,144,928
- 2031-32: $4,071,174
- Avg: $4,830,992
Looking ahead:
The top line of the offseason has been “but the cap is going up” in response to every outrageous proposed free agent signing. While the increase in cap will won’t stop every GM from making bad signings, it will open up opportunities for some teams and players. It will create a world of excitement over the next few weeks as we look forward to free agency and the summer!
Storm Tracker 